Commander Andris Kovalevskis checks his watch for the third time in ten minutes. It’s 2 AM at a radar station near the Latvian-Russian border, and his team has just lost contact with three suspicious objects approaching from the east. The blips vanished below the treeline somewhere over the Daugava River valley.
“Could be birds,” whispers his deputy. “Could be something else entirely.”
In the morning, local farmers will find small craters in their fields. By then, it will be too late to know whether they were practice runs or failed attacks. This is the reality Latvian air defense commanders face every night as Russian attack drones grow more sophisticated while their defenses struggle to keep pace.
A Small Nation Facing an Outsized Threat
Latvia finds itself in an impossible position. The small Baltic nation shares over 400 kilometers of border with Russia and Belarus, creating multiple entry points for hostile aircraft. Yet the country lacks the resources to monitor and defend every inch of this frontier against increasingly clever Russian attack drones.
The numbers tell a stark story. From Latvia’s eastern border to its capital Riga, there are barely 300 kilometers of territory. Modern attack drones can cover this distance in under two hours, flying low to avoid detection. Once they slip past the initial radar coverage, Latvia’s defenders have precious little time to react.
“We’re trying to plug a dam with our fingers,” admits Colonel Maris Stenders, who oversees air defense coordination for the Latvian military. “Every month, these drones get smarter, cheaper, and harder to spot. We’re always playing catch-up.”
The challenge goes beyond simple geography. Russian attack drones have evolved from basic reconnaissance tools into precision weapons capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometers from their launch points. They fly in swarms, coordinate attacks, and adapt to defensive countermeasures in real-time.
The Numbers Don’t Add Up
Latvia’s defense predicament becomes clear when you examine what it would take to properly secure the country’s airspace against drone threats:
| Defense Requirement | Current Capability | Estimated Need |
|---|---|---|
| Radar Coverage | 65% of border | Complete coverage |
| Anti-drone Systems | 12 units | 50+ units |
| Response Time | 15-20 minutes | 5-8 minutes |
| Annual Defense Budget | $800 million | $2+ billion needed |
The most pressing vulnerabilities include:
- Gaps in radar coverage along forested border areas where drones can slip through undetected
- Limited electronic warfare capabilities to jam or disable incoming attack drones
- Insufficient mobile air defense units to respond quickly to multiple simultaneous threats
- Outdated command and control systems that can’t process information fast enough
- Lack of integration between civilian and military air traffic monitoring
“The Russians know exactly where our blind spots are,” explains Dr. Inese Petersone, a defense analyst at the Latvian Institute for International Affairs. “They’ve been probing our defenses for years, testing response times and mapping our capabilities.”
Russian attack drones have demonstrated increasingly sophisticated tactics. Recent intelligence suggests they can coordinate multi-directional attacks, use electronic countermeasures to spoof radar systems, and even carry out autonomous missions without constant communication with controllers.
Real People, Real Consequences
This isn’t just a military problem—it affects everyone living in Latvia’s border regions. Farmers like Janis Berzins, whose property sits just 15 kilometers from the Russian frontier, have reported strange nighttime activity for months.
“You hear them sometimes,” Berzins says. “A low buzzing, like a giant mosquito. Then silence. In the morning, maybe you find some small damage, or maybe you don’t. But you know something was there.”
Border communities live with constant uncertainty. Schools have practiced drone alert drills. Hospitals near the frontier maintain emergency protocols for potential attacks on civilian infrastructure. Even wedding parties and outdoor gatherings now include discussions about what to do if unidentified aircraft appear overhead.
The economic impact extends beyond defense spending. International businesses hesitate to invest in border regions perceived as vulnerable. Tourism to Latvia’s eastern provinces has declined as visitors worry about security. Local property values have stagnated in areas closest to Russia.
“My daughter moved to Riga last year,” says Maria Kalnina, a teacher in Daugavpils, Latvia’s second-largest city located near the border. “She says it’s for work, but I know she’s worried about what might happen here. Young people are leaving, and I don’t blame them.”
NATO allies provide some reassurance through regular air policing missions, but these focus primarily on traditional aircraft threats. Fighter jets scrambling from Lithuanian or Estonian bases can’t effectively counter small, low-flying drones that disappear into forests or urban areas within minutes.
The psychological warfare aspect cannot be ignored. Russian attack drones don’t need to cause massive damage to achieve their strategic goals. Simply demonstrating the ability to penetrate Latvian airspace at will undermines public confidence and strains the country’s limited defense resources.
Latvia’s government faces difficult choices with no easy answers. Dramatically increasing defense spending would require cuts to education, healthcare, and infrastructure—exactly the areas that keep young Latvians from emigrating to wealthier EU countries. Yet failing to address the drone threat could leave the nation vulnerable to increasingly bold Russian provocations.
“We’re stuck between impossible options,” acknowledges Defense Minister Roberts Kronbergs. “We need help from our allies, but we also need to be realistic about what we can accomplish with our own resources.”
FAQs
How many Russian attack drones could Latvia realistically defend against?
Current estimates suggest Latvia could handle 5-10 simultaneous drone incursions, but would struggle against larger coordinated attacks.
Are NATO allies helping Latvia improve its drone defenses?
Yes, several NATO countries are providing technical assistance and equipment, but the scale of support remains insufficient for complete coverage.
What types of targets would Russian drones most likely attack in Latvia?
Critical infrastructure like power plants, communication towers, and transportation hubs would be primary targets, along with military installations.
How much would it cost to properly defend Latvia against drone threats?
Defense experts estimate Latvia would need to triple its current defense budget to achieve adequate protection against sophisticated drone attacks.
Could Latvia shoot down Russian attack drones over its own territory?
Legally yes, but practically Latvia lacks sufficient anti-drone weapons and detection systems to reliably intercept multiple simultaneous attacks.
What happens if a Russian drone crashes in Latvia by accident?
Such incidents would likely trigger diplomatic protests and potentially escalate tensions, even if the intrusion was unintentional or due to technical malfunction.
About the Author
