Ahmed pulls his pickup truck to the side of Highway 5, somewhere between Tabuk and the Red Sea coast. He’s been driving this route for fifteen years, hauling construction materials to desert projects that bloom and fade like seasonal flowers. Tonight, something’s different. The lights of the NEOM desert project don’t stretch as far across the horizon as they did last year.
He lights a cigarette and checks his phone. Another headline about The Line getting smaller. Ahmed isn’t surprised. He’s seen enough Saudi mega-projects to know when the early excitement starts bumping against reality.
“My cousin works there,” he says to no one in particular. “Says they’re not talking about 100 miles anymore. More like 10, maybe 15 if they’re lucky.”
The desert mirage that captivated the world
When Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled The Line in 2021, it felt like science fiction bleeding into the real world. A 170-kilometer linear city stretching across the northwestern Saudi desert, two parallel mirrored walls rising 500 meters high, no cars, no emissions, nine million residents living in vertical neighborhoods that defied every rule of urban planning.
The promotional videos showed people walking through forest-like corridors suspended hundreds of meters above the desert floor. Ski slopes in the desert. Artificial beaches. A hyperloop zipping through the structure at 300 mph.
Now, three years and billions of dollars later, Saudi officials are quietly admitting what critics suspected all along: the original vision was too big, too fast, too ambitious even for a kingdom with deep pockets and grand dreams.
“We’re seeing a more realistic approach to the phased implementation,” says Dr. Sarah Mitchell, an urban planning specialist who has consulted on Middle Eastern mega-projects. “The question isn’t whether this was always unrealistic. The question is what we do with the pieces that remain.”
What’s actually being built versus what was promised
The gap between NEOM’s original promises and current reality tells a story that’s both fascinating and sobering. Here’s what we know about the scaled-back plans:
| Original Vision (2021) | Current Reality (2024) |
|---|---|
| 170 km linear city | 10-15 km initial phase |
| 9 million residents | 300,000-500,000 target population |
| 500m high mirrored walls | 200m maximum height in early phases |
| $500 billion total investment | $50-100 billion revised budget |
| Completion by 2030 | Partial completion by 2035 |
The revised plans focus on building a more modest linear development that could theoretically be extended over decades. Instead of the full mirrored wall concept, the initial phase involves more conventional mixed-use buildings arranged in a linear pattern.
- Construction continues on hotel and residential complexes designed to house early residents and tourists
- The Trojena mountain resort, part of the broader NEOM project, remains on track with a more realistic scope
- Industrial zones for hydrogen production and renewable energy generation are moving forward
- The planned airport and port infrastructure continues development to support the reduced city
“What’s happening isn’t necessarily failure,” explains economist James Harrison, who tracks Gulf infrastructure spending. “It’s what happens when a marketing concept meets engineering reality. The Saudis are learning the same lesson Disney learned with EPCOT.”
The human cost of scaling back dreams
Behind the headlines about billions of dollars and engineering challenges are real people whose lives got caught up in The Line’s gravitational pull. Thousands of workers relocated to the region. International consultants signed multi-year contracts. Local communities were promised transformation.
Khalid, a 34-year-old engineer from Riyadh, moved his family to Tabuk in 2022 to work on The Line’s transportation systems. He bought a house, enrolled his kids in local schools, and committed to what he thought would be a decade-long project.
“Now they’re telling us maybe we finish one section in five years, maybe two sections in ten years,” he says. “My kids ask me if we’re moving back to Riyadh. I don’t know what to tell them.”
The Huwaitat tribe, whose traditional lands overlap with the NEOM site, negotiated relocation agreements based on the original massive project. Tribal leader Abdullah Al-Huwaiti describes the current situation as “planning for a city the size of London, but building something the size of Cambridge.”
International workers face their own uncertainty. Engineering firm Aecom laid off roughly 200 NEOM-focused employees in late 2023. Consulting giant McKinsey reportedly scaled back its NEOM team by 40% as the project’s scope narrowed.
“People’s lives got restructured around this vision,” notes Dr. Mitchell. “When you scale back that dramatically, you’re not just changing blueprints. You’re changing people’s futures.”
Should the world celebrate pragmatism or mourn ambition?
The downsizing of The Line raises bigger questions about how we balance bold vision with practical execution. Saudi Arabia isn’t the first country to dream big and deliver smaller, but rarely have the stakes been quite this visible.
Climate advocates point out that even a scaled-back NEOM could showcase renewable energy integration and sustainable urban planning in one of the world’s most oil-dependent regions. The project’s hydrogen production facilities, if completed, could demonstrate clean energy export potential for other desert nations.
Critics argue that the billions already spent on The Line could have funded hundreds of smaller, more achievable sustainable development projects across the Middle East. School construction, renewable energy installations, water treatment facilities, public transportation networks.
“There’s something to be said for taking a moon shot, even if you don’t reach the moon,” says Hassan Al-Rashid, a Riyadh-based infrastructure analyst. “But there’s also something to be said for building a hundred schools instead of one impossible city.”
The psychological impact may prove as significant as the economic one. The Line represented Saudi Arabia’s attempt to position itself as a technological pioneer, not just an oil exporter. Scaling back the project raises questions about whether the kingdom can execute the bold transformations outlined in Vision 2030.
For neighboring Gulf states watching Saudi Arabia’s diversification efforts, The Line’s evolution provides both cautionary tale and practical lesson. The UAE’s more modest but deliverable projects suddenly look prescient compared to Saudi Arabia’s swing-for-the-fences approach.
What happens next in the desert
Construction continues at NEOM, but with a different energy than the frenzied early days. Workers describe a more methodical pace, focused on completing smaller, achievable sections rather than racing toward an impossible deadline.
The Saudi government hasn’t officially abandoned the 170-kilometer vision. Officials describe the current work as “Phase One” of a longer-term development that could eventually reach the original scale. But privately, most observers expect the project to plateau at something much smaller than originally envisioned.
What emerges from the desert may still be impressive. A 15-kilometer linear city serving half a million people would rank among the most ambitious urban planning projects in modern history. The renewable energy infrastructure could provide a model for other desert developments. The architectural innovations, even at reduced scale, might influence city planning worldwide.
Ahmed, the truck driver, finishes his cigarette and climbs back into his cab. He’s got another load of steel beams to deliver to NEOM in the morning. The project may be smaller than promised, but it’s still bigger than anything else rising from this particular stretch of desert.
“Maybe it’s better this way,” he says, shifting into gear. “Build something people can actually live in, instead of something that just looks good in videos.”
FAQs
What is the NEOM desert project?
NEOM is Saudi Arabia’s futuristic city project in the northwest desert, originally planned as a 170-kilometer linear city called The Line, now scaled back to a much smaller initial phase.
Why is The Line being scaled back?
The original 170-kilometer vision proved too ambitious and expensive, with engineering challenges and budget constraints forcing Saudi Arabia to focus on a more realistic 10-15 kilometer initial development.
How much money has been spent on NEOM?
While exact figures aren’t public, estimates suggest Saudi Arabia has invested tens of billions of dollars in the project, with the original budget of $500 billion now revised to $50-100 billion.
Will The Line ever reach its original 170-kilometer length?
Saudi officials describe the current work as “Phase One” but most analysts expect the project to remain much smaller than originally planned, possibly reaching 15-30 kilometers at most.
What’s actually being built at NEOM now?
Current construction focuses on hotel complexes, residential buildings, renewable energy facilities, and basic infrastructure like airports and ports, arranged in a linear pattern but at conventional building heights.
How many people will live in the scaled-back version?
Instead of the original target of 9 million residents, the revised plans aim for 300,000 to 500,000 people in the initial phases of development.
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