After weeks of chilly and unsettled weather, many in the UK are beginning to ask: when will we finally see some sustained warmth again? Following a notably cold start to spring, expectations for a return to typical seasonal temperatures are growing higher. As forecasts from leading meteorological services suggest, the second half of May could bring some welcome changes in the weather pattern across the country.
Both the BBC and the Met Office have indicated that while cold spells and rains dominated the earlier part of May, there are signs of more stable and warmer conditions emerging soon. This shift comes as a result of high-pressure systems building across parts of Northern and Central Europe, potentially drawing milder air over the UK. Still, the timing and intensity of this warm-up remain subject to localized variations. Here’s what the forecast reveals—and what British residents can expect in the coming days and weeks.
UK May Weather Outlook: Key Details at a Glance
| Weather Element | Current Conditions (Mid-May) | Forecast Change (Late May) |
|---|---|---|
| Temperature | Below-average, 9–14°C | Rising to 16–21°C in many areas |
| Rainfall | Frequent showers | Becoming drier in southern and eastern regions |
| Winds | Gusty, from the northwest | Calming as pressure builds |
| Sky Conditions | Overcast with short sunny spells | Increasing sunshine, especially in the South |
| Best Regions for Warmth | Limited warmth overall | South East, East Anglia, Midlands |
Lingering chill across much of the UK so far
The first half of May has seen temperatures lag behind seasonal averages in most corners of the UK, with daytime highs struggling to climb much beyond the low teens. This unseasonable chill has been largely driven by a persistent northerly and northwesterly airflow, dragging down cooler maritime air from the North Atlantic and even occasionally drawing Arctic influences into Scotland and northern England.
Across many areas—particularly in the Midlands, the North, and Scotland—overnight frosts returned, defying expectations for mid-spring conditions. Gardeners and farmers have been especially impacted, with concerns about planting delays and vulnerable crops facing temperature shocks.
What changed this year to bring a colder May
May 2024 has differed from recent Mays partly due to the global influences affecting jet stream behavior. A combination of factors—including lingering La Niña effects and patterns in the stratospheric polar vortex—have contributed to blocking patterns that leave western Europe exposed to cooler air masses and frequent low pressure systems.
Specifically, the UK has remained under the influence of troughs in the North Atlantic, with high pressure anchored further west than usual. This has encouraged a cyclical return of wet and cold systems from the north and northwest. While past years have seen an earlier swing toward summer warmth, May this year has stubbornly resisted that transition—until now.
Signs of a warmer spell emerging
According to the latest forecasts from national meteorological bodies, this persistent chill could finally be on its way out. The latter half of May is showing increasing potential for a shift toward drier and warmer conditions, especially across the southern parts of the UK.
High-pressure systems over the continent are expected to stretch their influence westward, nudging low pressure systems away from the UK. This pattern is favorable for drawing in warmer air masses from the near continent and southern Europe, boosting daytime temperatures and increasing sunshine hours across England and Wales.
Longer-range signals suggest a change by the final third of May with southern parts likely benefiting most from higher pressures and warmer airflows.
— Alex Burton, Senior Meteorologist
Regional differences will still apply
The warmth will not be evenly distributed across the UK. While London, Southeast England, and East Anglia are set to see highs nudging into the low 20s Celsius, regions farther north—such as Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland—may continue to experience cooler than average temperatures, with sporadic rain or cloud disruptions.
The isothermal divide between the South and North is typical of spring transition periods in the UK, and 2024 appears no different. Even so, residents across much of the UK will likely notice a more “settled” weather pattern developing, encouraging outdoor activities, tourism, and seasonal events.
Impact on upcoming events and seasonal planning
The upturn in weather could not have come at a better time, as the UK heads into a stretch filled with outdoor festivals, half-term school holidays, and increased travel. A return to milder temperatures and drier skies will help support these plans and allow local economies—especially those reliant on tourism and agriculture—to recover from the sluggish start to spring.
Garden centers, leisure parks, and hospitality venues across the South and Midlands are expected to benefit most as footfall increases in tandem with the mercury. It will also provide much-needed breaks for regions recovering from waterlogged fields and flood-prone landscapes impacted earlier this year.
Winners and losers of the May forecast
| Winners | Losers |
|---|---|
| South East England – enjoying warmer, drier conditions | Scotland – lingering cool and cloudier spells |
| Outdoor event organisers – better weather for attendance | Growers in the North – planting delays due to continued chills |
| Tourism and hospitality sectors in the Midlands | Northern hikers – potentially hazardous track conditions |
Looking ahead to early summer
Looking beyond May, long-range outlooks are cautiously optimistic about the start of summer. June is forecast to begin on a relatively warmer and drier note than April or May, though transient rain systems could make periodic returns. However, dominant high pressure may assert more control over the UK’s weather, raising hopes for a generally comfortable and settled early summer—particularly in the southern half of the country.
We’re watching for a shift toward high-pressure dominance across southern Britain around the start of June, introducing more summer-like conditions.
— Dr. Helen Marsh, Climatology Researcher
The key variable will be how the Atlantic jet stream behaves—if it weakens and retreats northward, it could allow for more frequent warm surges from the south. Brits hoping for a barbecue summer might not be disappointed, though continued variability is always expected in UK patterns.
Frequently asked questions about the UK’s changing May weather
When is the UK expected to warm up again in May?
The second half of May is forecast to bring warmer, dryer conditions especially in the southern and eastern regions of England.
Which parts of the UK will see the warmest weather first?
Southern England, particularly the South East and East Anglia, are likely to see the highest temperatures starting mid-to-late May.
Will the cool weather return after this warm spell?
While short-term variability is possible, the overall trend leans toward more stable, warmer conditions as June approaches.
Why has May 2024 been so much colder than usual?
A combination of northwesterly wind patterns and high-pressure blocks has kept much of the UK under cool, unsettled skies so far this month.
Is this pattern normal for the UK in spring?
Spring in the UK is highly variable, and shifts between unseasonal cold and early warmth are common, though this year’s delay has been notable.
Will the warmer conditions help struggling crops?
Yes, warmer and more settled weather will benefit agriculture, especially in the south, though northern regions may still suffer from delays.
Are further showers expected in late May?
Some sporadic rain is possible, particularly in northern regions, but overall drier conditions should emerge, especially in southern areas.
Is early June looking good for outdoor activities?
Early forecasts suggest that the start of June may bring more summer-like weather, ideal for outdoor events in southern half of the UK.
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