Sarah Mitchell remembers the day her husband came home from the naval shipyard in Adelaide, excitement lighting up his face. It was 2016, and Australia had just signed what everyone called the “deal of the century” with France. Twelve new submarines, thousands of jobs, and a secure future for their family. Sarah had already started planning their daughter’s college fund, confident in the steady work ahead.
Five years later, that same husband walked through their front door with very different news. The French deal was dead. Australia was switching to American nuclear submarines instead. Sarah felt her stomach drop – not just for their family, but for the hundreds of workers who’d built their lives around that original promise.
Now, four years after that jarring reversal, Sarah and thousands of other Australian families face an even more unsettling possibility: what if there are no submarines at all?
When Billion-Dollar Promises Start to Crumble
The AUKUS submarine deal was supposed to be Australia’s strategic masterstroke. After abruptly canceling a €56 billion contract with France in 2021, Canberra bet everything on securing nuclear-powered submarines from the United States. The gamble seemed calculated – nuclear subs could patrol farther, stay submerged longer, and project power across the vast Indo-Pacific where China’s naval presence grows stronger each year.
But that gamble now looks dangerously shaky. Washington is quietly re-examining whether it can even deliver the nuclear submarines it promised under the AUKUS pact. If the deal unravels, Australia faces a nightmare scenario: no French submarines, no American submarines, and a gaping hole in its naval defenses just when regional tensions are hitting boiling point.
“We’re seeing serious concerns in Congress about whether the US submarine industrial base can handle its own needs, let alone Australia’s,” says former naval intelligence officer Commander James Harrison. “The math simply doesn’t add up right now.”
The original French agreement, struck in 2016, had its problems. Cost overruns and delays plagued the project from early on. But it was a tangible deal with clear timelines – France’s Naval Group would build 12 conventionally powered submarines derived from their Suffren-class, with deliveries starting around 2030.
Then came September 2021’s bombshell announcement. Australia ditched France overnight, choosing instead to pursue nuclear-powered submarines through the newly formed AUKUS partnership with the US and UK. The diplomatic fallout was immediate and brutal – France recalled its ambassador and President Macron accused Australia of lying.
Breaking Down the AUKUS Submarine Promise
The AUKUS submarine deal was always complex, involving multiple phases and decades of commitment. Here’s what Australia was promised:
| Phase | Timeline | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 | 2020s | US and UK submarines rotate through Australian ports |
| Phase 2 | Early 2030s | US sells 3-5 Virginia-class submarines to Australia |
| Phase 3 | Late 2030s | New SSN-AUKUS submarines built jointly |
The total cost? A staggering €208 billion over 30 years, covering everything from construction to nuclear waste management. For a country with Australia’s population, that represents one of the largest defense investments in modern history.
Key challenges now emerging include:
- US submarine production is already behind schedule for American needs
- Skilled workforce shortages plague both US and UK shipyards
- Nuclear technology transfer faces complex regulatory hurdles
- Australian infrastructure for nuclear submarines remains largely theoretical
- Cost estimates continue climbing with inflation and complexity
“The Americans are struggling to build submarines for their own navy,” explains defense analyst Dr. Rebecca Thompson. “Promising to sell some to Australia was always going to be a stretch, and that’s becoming painfully obvious.”
The US Navy currently operates 68 submarines but aims for 66 attack submarines by the 2030s. Production rates at American shipyards average just over one submarine per year – far short of what’s needed to replace aging vessels and fulfill the AUKUS commitment.
Real People Pay the Price for Political Gambles
Behind every defense deal are real families whose livelihoods depend on these massive government decisions. The French contract would have employed around 2,800 people directly in Australia, with thousands more in supporting industries. Many of those workers have spent years in limbo, uncertain whether their skills will transfer to nuclear submarine work.
The ripple effects extend far beyond shipyard workers. Australia’s defense industry has invested billions in facilities and training programs tied to submarine construction. If the AUKUS deal collapses, much of that investment becomes worthless overnight.
“My concern is that we’ve put all our eggs in one very fragile basket,” warns former Defense Department official Michael Chen. “We’ve burned bridges with France, and now the American option looks increasingly uncertain.”
Regional security implications are equally serious. Australia’s current Collins-class submarines, built in the 1990s, are aging rapidly. Without new vessels, the country faces a “submarine gap” in the 2030s – exactly when experts predict China’s military assertiveness will peak.
Military strategists worry that this gap could embolden Chinese expansion in the South China Sea and beyond. Australia’s vast coastline and maritime trade routes depend on submarine deterrence, making any capability loss potentially catastrophic.
The economic costs keep mounting too. Australia has already paid France €555 million in cancellation fees, with more penalties likely. Meanwhile, AUKUS infrastructure projects consume billions despite uncertain outcomes.
For ordinary Australians, the failed submarine saga represents something deeper – a government’s willingness to make massive bets with taxpayer money while real families bear the consequences of those gambles going wrong.
“We’ve gone from having submarines on the way to having submarines that might never come,” says Sarah Mitchell, still living with the uncertainty that started at her kitchen table years ago. “At some point, you have to deliver on your promises.”
FAQs
What was the original French submarine deal worth?
The contract with France’s Naval Group was valued at approximately €56 billion for 12 conventionally powered submarines.
Why did Australia cancel the French deal?
Australia wanted nuclear-powered submarines that could patrol farther and stay submerged longer, capabilities seen as crucial for countering China’s growing naval presence.
What exactly is the AUKUS submarine agreement?
AUKUS is a three-phase plan where the US and UK help Australia acquire nuclear submarines, starting with rotational visits and eventually leading to joint submarine production.
How much will AUKUS cost Australia?
The total program is estimated at around €208 billion over 30 years, including construction, infrastructure, training, and long-term maintenance.
Could Australia end up with no new submarines at all?
Yes, if the AUKUS deal fails due to US production constraints or other issues, Australia could face a significant naval capability gap in the 2030s.
When would Australia actually receive submarines under AUKUS?
The earliest timeline shows potential delivery of US Virginia-class submarines in the early 2030s, with new joint-built submarines coming later in that decade.
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